It’s a conspiracy… or did I?

One in eight Australians believe Microsoft founder Bill Gates is somehow responsible for the coronavirus and the 5G wireless network is to blame for spreading the disease. 

And the same number of people believe the pandemic is being used to force us into getting vaccinations.

Seven in every ten Americans believe that there was a second gunman, and one in three believe that there is a deep state working against Donald Trump. 

Whether it’s coronavirus, the second gunman in the assassination of John F Kennedy, the faked moon landing or the myth of climate change, conspiracy theories are everywhere. 

And while there is no doubt that we should be sceptical of systems, of institutions, even of people’s motives, it is also important to be rigorous in how we assess particular claims. 

So, why do people believe in conspiracies?

Well, like all things in human behaviour, it isn’t a simple answer. 

People are complex, and are the product of their environment, their autobiography, their early behavioural models, and their genes.

There is a lot to cover, but I will try to break it down… at least to a point where you can get a broad understanding of who, what and why people believe in conspiracy theories. 

The first thing to acknowledge is the concept of truth – and to unpick that, I suggest you go back to my posts about overcoming bias and narrow thinking, and the provisional nature of knowledge. 

Obviously many people will have opinions about what is and isn’t true, but in this post, I’ll be drawing from the peer-reviewed literature about the psychology behind belief in conspiracies. 

And I recognise that peer-reviewed literature also has its pitfalls, but it’s worth consideration when we are trying to understand something. And it’s probably the most rigorous option, because it is open to peer review, both before and after it’s published. 

So one of the most important factors that the research in this area tells us is that if you believe in one conspiracy theory, it’s likely that you also believe in other conspiracy theories.

And another critical factor is that a person’s subjective feelings of lack of control over their environment increase the likelihood that they will believe in conspiracies. 

So, people who feel that they have little or no control over their important life outcomes, like employment, financial prospects and even interpersonal relationships show a higher tendency to believe in conspiracies in general. 

And there is research to suggest that belief in conspiracy theories gives people an opportunity to regain a sense of control, a sense of order, and a feeling of existential power.

So, believing that the the Corona virus was concocted by the head of a well known, successful and ubiquitous brand simplifies the complexity and apparent randomness of submicroscopic, parasitic particles of genetic material contained in a protein coat, particularly in the face of great tragedy.

In others words, it’s easier to blame someone or something that we think we know and understand than  it is to do the work of educating ourselves about the complexity of microbiology, deoxyribonucleic acid and proteins. 

Indeed, the need for closure is also associated with beliefs in conspiracy theories for events that lack clear official explanations. All humans desire to make sense of an uncertain world, and perceived control over our environment helps us to feel like we have control, at least over the things were we feel we can. Conspiracy theories helps people to provide relatively simple and understandable explanations of complex and nuanced events and, most of the time, an entity to blame.

So you could say that not understanding something, makes people feel a bit powerless to respond to it. 

And beliefs in conspiracies tend to be associated with feelings of powerlessness.

In fact, it’s been suggested in the psychological literature that feelings of powerlessness lead eventually to a distrust of others, especially those in authority. 

Belief in conspiracy theories is also more likely amongst people who look for patterns in the external environment, as well as people who are prone to magical thinking, trait Machiavellianism, and primary psychopathy.

Religious individuals are more likely than non-religious to believe in conspiracy theories and right-wing authoritarianism – which encompasses the concept of obedience to an authoritarian leader – has been shown to be associated with belief in conspiracy theories.

An extension of this is that people are drawn to conspiracy theories because they satisfy three important social psychological motives.

The first one is epistemic motives, which are things like a desire for understanding how the world works and feelings of certainty.

The second is existential motives, which are best thought of as a desire for control and security over our own existence. 

And the third is social motives, which mostly manifest themselves as a desire to maintain a positive image of the self or their in-group.

In some studies, people who believed in conspiracy theories tended to be disaffected and disengaged with the political system, which in turn could lead to more cynical attitudes and defiance towards traditional politicians.

And it was these individuals who were most likely to reject mainstream views on a wide variety of topics… which also feeds into and supports their belief systems. 

And because they reject the political system, mainstream explanations of an event don’t make sense, because they are delivered by the same sources that they doubt. 

In recent research, a particularly interesting personality factor that has been identified, is that people who show a need for uniqueness are also more likely to believe in a conspiracy theory, particularly when they feel that only a minority of people support this theory. 

So, believing in a conspiracy theory or theories makes someone feel different and unique, which feeds into their self-esteem. 

And individual narcissism, or a grandiose idea of the self, is also positively related to belief in conspiracy theories. 

So, it is a complex web of factors that lead a person to believe in conspiracies and conspiracy theories, and this post has only just scratched the surface of the recent research in this field. 

And, unfortunately counter-evidence and facts are unlikely to convince people to give up their conspiracy theories. 

And I’ll explain why in a future post.